The fault lines running under Seattle
Thursday, January 29th, 2009Before assuming however that Microsoft is just the latest to be infected by the dreaded Downturn virus (a nasty worm that exploits unpatched Securities Exchange Commission holes, deletes wealth and then spreads rapidly through the banking system), it is worth considering a few other facts.
Microsoft’s January 22nd announcement stated “Client revenue declined 8% as a result of PC market weakness and a continued shift to lower priced netbooks”. While for Balmer and Co. the movement toward netbooks might have proven to be an unfortunate trend it is worth reminding ourselves that it is one that is neither wholly unexpected nor is it necessarily undesirable.
All throughout 2008 enterprises looked at their IT estates in light of worsening economic conditions, and also with a newly minted concern for the electricity consumption of the desktop and server environment. In common with our Industry Analyst peers, Quocirca has regularly pointed toward the need for a re-examination of the hardware choices in the office environment, especially in light of emerging computing architectures such as SaaS and Cloud.
Quocirca’s advice continues to be that corporations should look to sweat the hardware assets already deployed if you are simply looking to defer the expense of replacement. Extending the life of the existing desktop estate also allows enterprises to focus further on best-practice asset management of the IT assets they have. It is becoming mainstream for enterprises to not only focus on effective remote management of the software stack across the office environment, but also active management of the power state of the devices. The financial savings resulting from turning off and sleeping existing desktop machines can be substantial – not to mention the very real benefit of lowered GHG emissions that comes with reducing electricity consumption.
In environmental terms, there is certainly an argument to be made that newer machines are computationally more powerful and less power hungry than older models. However as the embodied CO2 and ecological footprint of neither the existing machine nor the potential replacement model is easily and accurately calculated, it is difficult to say whether there is a net environmental benefit in replacing an existing equipment or otherwise. As long as the existing desktop kit is relatively young, then active power management of the device estate will probably yield as much benefit in electricity savings as implementing newer devices, while completely avoiding the environmental burden of the embodied footprint inherent in rolling out a newer fleet.
If you do wish to replace the desktop hardware, power consumption of the hardware during its lifetime needs to be a consideration in the selection. A PC/Laptop on every desk might have been an incredibly lucrative market for Microsoft’s OS/Office combination but its suitability is questionable in terms of consumed computing power out for every watt of electricity in. Netbooks generally use less electricity in the use phase. Being less capable than PC/laptops they are inherently also simpler devices, and it is possible (though not necessarily guaranteed) that the embodied carbon footprint of the device will be less than a fully featured alternative.
Meanwhile, it has been fairly common advice from industry watchers that enterprises should reconsider whether they will continue to need a computationally powerful, and power hungry desktop machine estate at all. Sure, a newer like-for-like device is almost certainly more powerful than the old, but do you need the extra horsepower? If a significant proportion of your application environment is today (or is planned to be) web based then traditional PC/laptop hardware is perhaps a poor choice.
Newer computing architectures shift the major processing demands back away from the desktop. The increasing desire for computing mobility, so well served during the last decade by laptops, is arguably better served today through storage of data in the cloud from where it can be accessed via a browser from whichever device suits wherever you are and whatever you’re doing.
From a security point of view, the large attack surface of a traditional desktop (or laptop) device has also continued to present an expensive and complex set of problems for enterprises. A blocked service might be a shut down service, but an absent service is one that is utterly closed off to potential attack. It may be better therefore to implement a desktop environment that doesn’t need so many software services to be patched/filtered/blocked, thus reducing the attack surface straight out of the box.
Netbooks are, as Microsoft seems to have discovered to their loss, a natural candidate for consideration to meet all these needs. The corporation’s disappointing financial results paired with their willingness to place some of the blame on the rise of such devices speaks volumes about the company’s weak position vis-à-vis having an effective strategy as computing requirements change. Difficult trading conditions during the lead up to the (now official) recession have certainly played a part. However it is arguable that the macro economic factors have merely been the accelerant that has flared an existing fire rather than being a new conflagration burning through Microsoft’s wealth.
Welcome to today…now where does Microsoft go from here?