Getting ready for change
The scope of change required to meet the GHG reduction targets currently being set is enormous. Targets of 80% reductions (by 2050) are even today being labelled “minimum” as new evidence emerges that the IPCC (et al) calculations, predictions and calls for action err on the side of optimism. Indeed, there is emerging evidence of the need for large-scale sequestration of existing atmospheric GHG concentrations, supporting a “> 100%” net decline in anthropogenic emission rates.
Regardless of whether the required target is 80%, 110% or otherwise, it is clear that given the reliance on emission heavy activities, energy sources and construction materials the degree of required change will be disruptive. Achieving the required GHG cuts will require a mixture of direct and indirect market interventions. Direct intervention will generally be in the form of regulation that controls, limits, and apportions polluting activities. Indirect intervention will be achieved through pricing in and accounting for those facto
rs, which are currently regarded as market externalities. As a result, the current assumptions that make supply chain choices et al what they are today will shift seismically, leading to a new reality. Achieving that new reality involves changing the energy supply/consumption model - creating the requirement for new skills, while inherently also requiring behavioural and system changes in order for the change to gain momentum and to be successful.
The bulk of any country’s school systems are utterly unprepared to adequately equip those currently being educated by it with regards to climate change science, overall environmental degradation, resource depletion. This is largely due to a twin failure of government policy failure and a lack of meaningful parental and social pressure. Due to that fact, almost no schools have given adequate thought toward any potential curriculum changes designed to better provide graduating students with the practical and theoretical skills that will be useful in a world struggling to implement the changes necessary to avoid catastrophic ecosystem failure. In short, the majority of any country’s education systems are failing in their duty to provide today’s students with the skills and knowledge required for survival and success in the future.
The required responses to climate change are framed over the coming four to five decades. Unless the students of today are set on a different path and enabled to actively take part in supporting these changes the time at which social inertia is overcome will be further delayed. Climate change predictions and science indicate that urgent action is required and further delay will be catastrophic.
It is worth being mindful of the fact that the impacts of climate change will be felt over an extended period of time (albeit one measured in very human time scales). The same is of true of the implementation of the required changes to the behaviour of people, to our processes, and our use of technology. Given that the GHG reduction targets are framed over a 40+ year timeframe we would do well to recognise that those individuals in our school systems in 2009 will be the business leaders, workers, and adult members of society of 2050. The skills that they will need to have will be different than those valued today.
The cross-generational shift of valued skill sets is not an unknown phenomenon; society’s history since the industrial revolution is littered with examples of tectonic technology shifts making long valued skill-sets obsolete within a single decade. Over the last 30 or so years we have seen this phenomena within almost every business and organisation – manifesting itself as the widespread use of ICT (Information Communications Technology) has moved from EDP back office processing and academic research to being a ubiquitous face of commerce and daily activity. The terms “digital natives”, “digital immigrants”, and “digital ignorant” have been coined to refer to the various generations moving through the workforces of the 1980s through today, and their relative comfort levels with ICT.
Mirroring the way that we have seen the emergence of the Digital Native, we will see an evolution in the understanding of climate change and effective avoidance strategies in future generations. Such a change however, will not occur by itself. Inherent inertia must be overcome, and a thoughtful and planned approach taken toward guiding the path of development.
Borrowing from this idea of “Digital Natives”, and recognising also that the skills required to enact the changes necessary to meet the GHG reduction targets will be different again from those that will be useful in the longer term, the labels “emission ignorants”, “emission transitioners”, and “emission adepts” are useful ones - capturing the essence of the required shifts in skills sets over time.
Emission ignorants are those who remain unaware of either the facts of climate change, or the scope of the necessary changes. A subset of the Ignorants may be moved to the Transitioner category through education.
Emission Transitioners are those individuals who will play an active role in enabling the necessary GHG emission reductions. They are a visible minority today and their waxing influence will straddle the decades between now and the current emission reduction target date of 2050. The activities of Transitioners will be defined as one of “dealing with change” as they seek to understand the scope of the necessary changes, and then unravel the current organisational and structural behaviours and systems, replacing them with the new.
Emission Adepts will eventually replace Emission Transitioners. Adepts will live in a world where the majority of the necessary changes have already occurred. As the economic externalities of emissions have been internalised, the basic assumptions that drive every day activity will also have changed. In essence, Adepts will have internalised those assumptions and will live within a society, an economic model, and a world that has structurally adapted to the new reality.
Those that are the relative “early transitioners” must apply their individual and collective skills toward to the efforts to better understand our current state, the needs of the future, and the efforts to communicate and engage with the Emissions Ignorants. Co-operation is key between academia, business, and political parties if we are to harvest the skill sets that currently exist in the marketplace, and to move ahead with the pace and accuracy required. An effective sharing of academic knowledge related to climate change will accelerate and broaden awareness and knowledge in society at large, amongst business leaders, and regulators. Meanwhile, academia will benefit from further understanding the evolving needs of the marketplace and therefore in what ways and at what pace curriculum should alter. Nimbleness will be highly important, though it is currently lacking.
Read more here in a whitepaper entitled “Setting the framework for skills change” (PDF format). Setting the framework for skills change considers the need for an evolving set of practical and theoretical skills amongst the workforce and the broader community in order to support an adequate response to climate change.
Tags: Education, Governance, Strategy